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There Is No Tomorrow Update V1.0.3 UPD

We have been working diligently towards distributing an update that will bring new content to the game, including a new mode where you can strengthen and play with an original team, as well as support for mobile devices on November 11, 2021. Unfortunately, we have concluded that more time is needed to release the product with the level of quality that will meet the expectations of our users. We have therefore decided to postpone the release.

There Is No Tomorrow Update v1.0.3

Our goal with backpropagation is to update each of the weights in the network so that they cause the actual output to be closer the target output, thereby minimizing the error for each output neuron and the network as a whole.

Correct observation. The bias is not updated, therefore the total error in the first round and the second round goes like this:Matt: E=0.298371109 -> E=0.291027924If you correctly update the bias also, then it should be like this:Barek: E=0.298371 -> E=0.280471When I did not update the bias, just like Matt, then I gotBarek: E=0.298371 -> E=0.291028This proves that Matt did not update the bias.Anyway, this is a great post. Thank you, Matt!

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.

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